Zambia’s mining industry has long been held up as the sector with the potential to transform the economy and elevate the country to middle-income status and, in 2021, the New Dawn Government began actively marketing that dream. Nine months after coming to power, the irresistible optimism of President Hakainde Hichilema’s keynote address at the 2022 Investing in African Mining Indaba reverberated through the Cape Town International Convention Centre, sending a strong signal that Zambia was back in business.
Last year, Zambia stole the show again, with President Hakainde Hichilema giving substance to Zambia’s “Invest with Confidence” message by listing over $4 billion in mining sector investments that had been pledged since he was elected.
Now, these investment pledges are starting to materialise, and more money is flowing into Zambia’s economy from mining. But experts are clear: for the country to continue gaining ground, steady progress in energy and infrastructure development is key. So is policy stability, with any future reforms coming out of open and transparent consultation with industry, in line with international best practices.
Mining For Zambia spoke to Zambians in different parts of the sector who attended the annual Indaba earlier this month about what’s been happening on the ground.
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“A lot of interesting things have happened since last year’s position,” said Mwindwa Siakalima, Chief Executive of Stanbic Bank Zambia Limited. “We’ve seen [annual] copper production go up to 820,000 metric tons of copper – and this is in the face of a power deficit, caused by the drought.”
Not too long ago, production on the Copperbelt was “stagnant”, he points out. “Now, if you look at the mines on the Copperbelt, we’re in a situation where production is happening again, payments are being made to local suppliers, and we can see that coming through in the economy.”
Mr Siakalima has also noticed an increase in demand for the financing of mining equipment and heavy duty machinery – or “yellow metal,” as he calls it. “When it comes to the contractors that are helping the mines to get the resource out of the ground, we’re seeing a lot of activity.”
Investment pledges are being unlocked in North-Western Province, too. First Quantum Minerals’ $1.25 billion investment in its S3 expansion at Kansanshi mine in Solwezi is on track to be commissioned in August this year. The expansion will extend Kansanshi’s mine life by 20 years, safeguarding thousands of jobs and ensuring the company’s economic and social contribution to the country can continue in the years to come. It also means more copper for Zambia’s national production goal of three million tonnes of the red metal annually by 2031.
“S3 will be in production by 2027,” said John Gladston, Director of Corporate Affairs at First Quantum Minerals, speaking at Zambia’s ‘Country Showcase’ event, an opportunity to sell Indaba delegates on why ours is a jurisdiction worth investing in. “We suspect production will be back up to around 240,000 tonnes of copper a year [by then]. We think it’s going to be a real trailblazing advert for investment in the mining sector in Zambia.”
“S3 will be in production by 2027,” said John Gladston, Director of Corporate Affairs at First Quantum Minerals. “We think it’s going to be a real trailblazing advert for investment in the mining sector in Zambia.”
Benefits beyond copper
Zambia’s national amethyst miner, Kariba Minerals Limited, exhibited at the Indaba’s Zambia pavilion, where General Manager Jordan Sinkende and his team fielded enquiries and set up meetings with a mixture of financiers, marketers, and mining supply companies.
“People who are already in the gemstone business have approached us about helping us gain access to new markets,” he said. The amethyst miner – which, a little over a year ago, branched out into jewellery-making – is eager to reach markets in Europe and the Middle East, in particular. “We’ve also had certain companies who are doing platinum, proposing partnerships where they provide us with the platinum we need for our jewellery, and we provide them with amethyst,” he explains. “There have been some interesting conversations about where there might be synergies.”
“Another area of our new value addition business is amethyst table tops and counter tops,” says Mr Sinkende. The purple-hued stone is an attractive and sufficiently strong substitute for granite, and this new venture is helping the wholly-owned subsidiary of ZCCM Investments Holdings Plc to reach international markets.
Investing in critical minerals
Zambia has an endowment of critical minerals that are essential for the green energy transition – from cobalt to lithium and manganese. But, as with copper, it’s a competitive space to play in. “We are competing for the same investors as the DRC,” explains Augustine Mubanga, Head of Mining at the Zambia Chamber of Commerce and Industry. “In the last couple of years, Zambia hasn’t had massive interest in exploration. When you have a lot of people doing exploration, they’re able to sell their rights to investors to invest in your [future] mines. So the beginning point for us should be exciting the appetite for exploration,” he says.
Mr Mubanga pointed out that Government’s funding of a national aerial survey of the country – which provides explorers with a sense, but by no means a treasure map, of where they might begin looking for mineral reserves – is an important first step. So far, 8.3% of the country has been aerially mapped to this end. “That’s the beginning of attracting investment,” says Mr Mubanga. “At least we are starting to expose where the opportunities are, rather than keeping quiet and expecting investors to come and start looking around.”
A model for the development of Zambia
But knowing where the minerals are located – “critical” or not – isn’t enough to make a meaningful contribution to Zambia’s economic and social development. That’s always been the goal for Dr Sixtus Mulenga, who spent fourteen years on a self-funded exploration mission in rural Luapula Province until he found manganese.
“My ultimate goal is to develop a fully integrated large-scale mining operation which has a positive footprint in terms of transforming and developing the area,” he explains. My vision continues to be integrating mining with agriculture because, if we’re able to do that, I feel we can create a model for the development of Zambia.”
Right now, Dr Mulenga’s company, Musamu Resources, is mining manganese on a small scale and selling it to local processing plants while he persists in finding the investment to take his project to the next level. “Ultimately, selling my manganese to local processing plants cannot work to build my project because the revenue is too small and unreliable.”
Having spent the last couple of years gathering information, and attending conferences and investment promotion events everywhere from Qatar to China and Belgium, he says he’s done all he can to get where he is on his own. “As the African proverb goes: ‘If you want to go fast, go alone. If you want to go far, go together,’” he says.
Finding the right partners to support his vision was part of his plan at this year’s Indaba. He met with several potential investors and also discussed offtake agreements. “If I can succeed in getting offtake, then I’m assured of meaningful revenue,” he says. “I need to get into the global market so I can upscale – in order to attract serious investors to come and work with me.”
“Because Zambia is land-linked, most of the time I have to explain [to potential partners] that we will move material by road to the ports, and that the rail line is not yet fully rehabilitated.”
Naturally, there are bottlenecks. “The one that comes up very often is the logistics,” he says. “Because Zambia is land-linked, most of the time I have to explain [to potential partners] that we will move material by road to the ports, and that the rail line is not yet fully rehabilitated.”
Developing a clear roadmap for the future
Energy and infrastructure development needs to be high on Zambia’s agenda if we are to compete with other copper and critical mineral-rich jurisdictions for investment. Policy stability is right up there, too.
Towards the end of last year, Government proposed a raft of legislative changes to Zambia’s mining tax regime that rattled more than a few future (and existing) investors.
“For those who are trying to make a decision on whether or not to be [and invest in] Zambia, one thing that they may come across is the fact that there are concerns relating to some proposed pieces of legislation,” says Andrew Chibuye, Country Senior Partner at global assurance, advisory and tax firm, PwC.
“For those who are trying to make a decision on whether or not to be [and invest in] Zambia, one thing that they may come across is the fact that there are concerns relating to some proposed pieces of legislation”
Overall, he felt that the sentiment around Zambia at the 2025 Indaba was positive. “A lot more Zambian businesses are participating directly as exhibitors – including some in different sectors like energy, which is key for mining.”
There are certainly reasons for cautious optimism. Mopani Copper Mine is back online and is projecting 120,000 tonnes of copper next year, with hopes of reaching 225,000 tonnes of copper cathode in the next five years. But that’s just 7.5% of the Government’s three million tonne target.
Reaching this target by 2031 – or any point in time – will require billions of dollars of investment. Mineral exploration is the first step in this costly exercise, followed by the development of several new, large-scale mines. To what extent is this lack of certainty around mining policy standing in the way?
“I wouldn’t say it’s a ‘hurdle’” says Mr Chibuye, “but it’s just one more thing that an investor needs to consider in terms of making an investment. One wants an investment environment that’s as easy as possible and as transparent as possible. It’s about providing clarity – because, when you do that, that’s one less thing for an investor to think about.”
Developing the country’s infrastructure and alternative drought-proof power sources are non-negotiables for most investors, too. The World Bank is working closely with Zambia to design a roadmap to help the country leverage its ‘energy transition minerals’ – from copper to cobalt and manganese – to achieve inclusive and sustainable economic transformation.
Senior Mining Specialist in the World Bank’s Energy and Extractives Global Practice, Martin Lokanc, spoke at the Indaba about the importance of long-term planning when it comes to this next chapter of developmental infrastructure investment. “Much of the investment in the mines – but also in energy and transport – is going to come from the private sector,” he explains.
As with any sector, capital is mobile and, in a competitive world with a growing need for energy transition minerals, it’s essential that Zambia is seen as an unequivocally attractive investment destination.
“Here, government action – or inaction – is really going to be the determinant of where investment flows,” Mr Lokanc points out.
Is Zambia ready to take the necessary steps towards seizing the golden opportunity with which we’re presented? Only time will tell.
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To find out more about the ‘roadmap’ that Zambia is developing with the World Bank, look out for our upcoming series in which we highlight key steps for the country to realise the full potential of its mineral endowment.
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See also: Zambia’s mining industry in 2023
